August Outlook

ETH is stealing the show

Aug 11, 2021

Looking at the 2hr chart on ETH/USD, what do you see?

We just had our first touch of the outer Kepler bands. In May, when we had 4 outer band touches. Kepler bands are an excellent indicator for mid-term plays. One visual concept that new investors can wrap their heads around is based on the bell curve. Bell curve basics are as follows: The probability that a given sale/trade falls inside a bell curve is 100%. At which price is a different story…

The dark blue blocks account for 68.2% of all sales and represent 1 standard deviation from the mean. At 2 standard deviations, 95% of all deals fall in this category. The last 4.4% is the 3rd standard deviation and encompasses the small outliers, and sales rarely happen in this window.

Now picture this diagram on its side.

When set up precisely, Kepler bands encompass all trading action, and rejection becomes more likely when you reach the 3rd standard deviation. Picture it similar to price-checking cars; you don’t want to overpay if you can help it. So if you are both the car dealer and the buyer, following a rigid structure to know when to buy and when to sell can be helpful.

Obviously, this is not 100% foolproof but waiting until trades come to you is extremely important. One valuable takeaway from this lesson is that patience with a set of rules can lead to success. It is about many small wins and well-managed losses.

If you are already in the trade from last month’s outlook when the fear and greed index was extremely low, this is the time to collect some profits as we hit the high price points again until you are playing with house money.

We had a lot of fun stuff happen this week in NFT land.

I have been primarily focused on NFTs and not trading due to the potential in this space. The projects I have been most excited about (plus how many I currently own) this week are Lonely Alien Space Club (29), Crazy Lizard Army (21), World of Women(4), FluF (1), and Void Attractors (2). Here is my take on each project and what I think is the longevity of each project.

Last week I minted 16 Lazy Lions at .05 (8) and 28 Crazy Lizard Army at .03 (21). They both had a crazy run-up. I sold some non-rares of each to recover mint money. Personally, I am not a fan of the Lazy Lions for a few reasons.

We had an extremely long wait on rarity tools. Hearing soon™ or tomorrow for 4 days leaves a poor taste as most projects have this done promptly following completion of project mint.
While looking through the collection, I felt that the rarity did not coincide with the uniqueness of the lions. My rarest lions looked extremely plain while my commons were all decked out. People are here to feel unique, and that should coincide with the rarity of your project.
The community was good, plus a well-managed Discord, so if you have a draw to this art style, I think it will do decent it just wasn’t my cup of tea.

Lonely Alien Space Club

The project was minted 3 weeks ago for .06 each, and I have fallen in love with this community. I am somewhat partial here for that reason, but spending time in multiple Discords a day, I always wanted to return to this one and not the others. I have purchased an additional 10 since mint as the price has been slowly increasing until yesterday. The project broke 2500 unique holders, a huge milestone, and Twitter engagement is through the roof. Community is at least 50% of the value in this PFP space, so a strong core community is a real value add. With the upcoming release of planets for LASC holders, I still feel this is a very underrated project. Some project stats from our community member @banterlytics. Well done on the DA dashboard.

Crazy Lizard Army

Just holy shit on this one. 🤯🤑

This project has striking art with new mechanics allowing you to combine 3 lizards to generate a dragon with randomized traits. This caused the project to skyrocket; the run-up from mint was .03 to .48 floor, which is a huge move. I sold a few non-rares and flipped a few Bitcoin shirt lizards to get some extra cash, with plans to rebuy some higher rarity lizards. Nothing can maintain such rapid growth, and the floor is resting around .2-.21, an extremely solid 7x. If they can execute the contract for the evolution lab and crush the artwork again, I think this has some long-term potential.

World of Women

What a great project; serving an underrepresented patron to NFTs by focusing on only female avatars, but they also have a great community and active dev team. I see this continuing its meteoric rise due to donating to multiple non-profits supporting women and a unique art style. Many influencers have jumped on the bandwagon, which pushed their unique wallet owners over 3000—pretty much a no-brainer.

FLUF World

These are very interesting—embedded music with a 3D moving avatar. I bought one as soon as I saw them as I was late to the game and didn’t get to mint any. One thing I genuinely like about NFTs with embedded music is when you view them in VR galleries, the music plays in a radius around the display, so most of my gallery has some sweet reggae beats. The road map looks well thought out and robust, with customization of music and the creation of metaverse avatars planned for all owners on the horizon. The floor sits around .6, but I feel that this clearly has some potential long-term as well. I recently joined the discord, so I haven’t met many people yet; I will report on that next week.

Void Attractors

My first On-chain generated art (genart) piece that I barely missed the mint for. 569 pieces in the collection that all reside on and can be reconstructed from the Ethereum blockchain…but there’s a little twist to this project. The code to reconstruct the artwork has to be discovered. The first four coders to crack the puzzle will get 4%, 3%, 2%, and 1% of the secondary sale, with the first to solve getting 4%.

The artist's vision for the project is art through the participation of fellow coders, and in a burgeoning genre of genart, this is a unique idea. The artist also plans to release 4 more projects showcasing his vision over the next year. Since release, the floor has been pretty solid at between .8-1.1, which I feel is reasonable, especially for the mint number (569), and there is no Twitter or influencer hype here. The artist did not announce the drop and is planning to do that for future releases, so once we get some more interested collectors, I could see these heading the way of DeafBeef and garner a following.

That’s all for the free weekly Crypto Crier. If you enjoyed this article, please like and share. If you have any questions, please leave a comment, and I can answer your questions further. As with all of my writing, this is not financial advice and is my opinion. I cannot stress enough how important it is to do your own research on all financial endeavors. I hope these newsletters can help investors realize the current financial systems’ downfalls and usher in a more equitable system without middlemen.

Let’s build something together.

Crypto Crier